The 2025/2026 Premier League season turned out to be one of the most unpredictable seasons to date.
After two campaigns of each promoted team being sent back down in the relegation zone, in the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 seasons, only one promoted team in Burnley had to return to the EFL Championship.
But to what extent does squad value have an effect on survival in the Premier League, and even on qualification for the European places.
To test this, I will be looking at three examples of teams who either overperformed or underperformed in the 2025/2026 campaign.
Breakdown
Figure 1 (above) highlights the league position of each Premier League club in the 2025/2026 campaign, compared to the squad value of each team – squad value statistics courtesy of Transfermarkt.
As detailed in figure 1, three of the four teams with the lowest squad values were relegated to the EFL Championship this season.
Leeds United, who have the third lowest squad value (€346.03m) made sure that the lowest three did not all see the drop.
Towards the top of the table, Arsenal (€1.23bn) and Manchester City (€1.31bn) ensured the two highest values finished in the top two, with the Gunners taking the league title for the first time in 22 years.
The remainder of the table was less straightforward. Many teams over- and underperformed in the league this campaign.
For example, third highest valued squad Chelsea (€1.16bn) finished in 10th place, while sixth highest valued Manchester United (€742.15m) managed to finish in 3rd.
Underperformers
Tottenham Hotspur
The most obvious pick of the list would be Tottenham Hotspur who managed to stay in the Premier League by the skin of their teeth.
The North London side finished just two points above an 18th placed West Ham, despite boasting the fifth highest squad value in the league at €802.5m.
With one of the most expensive squads in the division, Spurs have now finished 17th in back-to-back seasons.
A significant factor in Spurs’ shortcomings this season, similar to the last campaign, was the sheer number of injuries they endured.
At one stage, the club were without ten senior players, all side-lined to injury, including captain Christian Romero.
Despite this, it is still hard to understand how the club has slipped down so far, on the back of winning the Europa League final last season and making signings with the extra clout gained from this silverware.
Ultimately, it may go down to bad business and misfortune. Mohammed Kudus cost the side €63.8m in the summer from West Ham yet featured in just half of Spurs’ league games due to injury.
€65m star signing Xavi Simons also missed 10 games, while key player James Maddison missed the bulk of the season through an ACL injury, playing just three games in the league.
With bizarre manager changes, and ill-fortune with player fitness, Tottenham can consider themselves lucky to remain in the Premier League.
Overperformers
Sunderland AFC
Coming into a season where the last six of their predecessors had been sent back down to the EFL Championship, Sunderland were not expected to finish as high as they did.
The Black Cats ended the season in 7th place, after back-to-back victories over European challengers Everton and Chelsea.
The Tyne and Wear outfit made many astute signings in the summer following their promotion, bringing in a combination of experience and youth.
Their most notable acquisition was Granit Xhaka from German side Bayer Leverkusen (€15), who pulled the strings in the midfield all season long, providing a tempo for the side.
Goalkeeper Robin Roefs (€10.5) and Defender Nordi Mukiele (€12) also transformed the defence, allowing Sunderland to stay in games and not fall behind – a frequent problem for promoted sides.
As of the beginning of May 2026, the Sunderland squad is valued at €381.95m and is just the 16th highest in the league.
It is thus clear to see the extent to which the side have overperformed, securing not just European football, but the UEFA Europa League for the upcoming season.
Head coach Regis Le Bris also transformed the side into one of the strongest teams on home soil this season.
Only six other teams secured more points at home this season than Sunderland, as a newly promoted side.
A home record that began with a streak of 11 games unbeaten at the Stadium of Light.
Figure 2 (above) shows the league positions of promoted teams in the last five Premier League seasons, including their points tallies.
As seen in figure 2, of the last five Premier league season, Sunderland have had the highest league finish, with just six teams of the 15 managing to stay up.
This seventh placed finish also features the highest points tally within this time period (54 points), two-points higher than Fulham in the 2022/2023 seasons (52 points).
AFC Bournemouth
For reasons somewhat similar to Sunderland, Bournemouth must be understood to have overperformed in the Premier League this past season.
The South Coast outfit have the 11th highest valued squad in the league, at €507.10m, and have built upon their ninth placed finish in the season prior.
Though their qualification into the UEFA Europa League is less of a surprise than Sunderland, having not been a newly promoted side, they have still exceeded expectations.
Despite retaining their highly regarded head coach Andoni Iraola, who has stepped down for the upcoming season, the club lost the bulk of its key players going into the season.
The Cherries defence was picked apart, with Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain acquiring their two starting central defenders in Dean Huijsen (€62.50m) and Ilya Zabarnyi (€63m).
Liverpool also spent €46.9m on their star left-back Milos Kerkez, who at just 21-years-old was one of their highest performers.
After this transfer window, despite the money in brought in for the club and the sensible but less flashy names Bournemouth brought in, expectations were low going into the season.
Yet, they find themselves in 6th place with the second-best level of European football secured.
The Cherries also lost star forward Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City in January for €72m, who had 10 goals and 3 assists with the side already.
Younger players like Junior Kroupi (19) and Adrien Truffert (23) stepped up and ultimately allowed the club to reach levels beyond expectations, irrelevant of squad value.
Conclusion at a glance
There is a clear correlation between squad value and league position in the Premier League, but it is not the be all and end all.
The title fight was between the two most valuable squads throughout (Arsenal and Manchester City), and the relegated teams consisted of three of the four least valuable squads (West Ham United; Leeds United; Wolverhampton Wanderers; and Burnley).
However, as is most clear in the difference between Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland’s seasons, squad value will not determine success.
The Black Cats squad value sits at €420.5m less than that of Spurs, yet one club finished in the UEFA Europa League spots and the other was just two points away from a Premier League exit.